Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 5 (100.0%), At least 8 (96.0%), At least 9 (37.0%). The market has $23K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 5 | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| At least 8 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| At least 9 | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| At least 10 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| At least 12 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| At least 14 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| At least 16 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| At least 20 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| At least 25 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $23K
- Liquidity: $23K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 5:
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 5 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
Related markets
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran this year?
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.