Spain General Election: Left-Right Seat Margin of Victory
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 20:23:25 UTC, Polymarket traders price Other (50.0%), Right 50-59 seats (24.0%), Right 30-39 seats (20.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 30 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Right 50-59 seats | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Right 30-39 seats | 20.5% | 20.5¢ | 79.5¢ |
| Right 60-69 seats | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| Right 40-49 seats | 15.5% | 15.5¢ | 84.5¢ |
| Right 1-9 seats | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Right 80+ seats | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Tie | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Right 70-79 seats | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Left 1+ seats | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Right 10-19 seats | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Right 20-29 seats | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $38K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin, in seats, between the combined number of seats won in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election by the right bloc (“Right”) and by the left bloc (“Left”). The right bloc consists of PP and Vox. The left bloc consists of PSOE, Broad Front (FA), Podemos, ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG. Seats won by any party not named above will not count toward either bloc. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the two blocs’ combined seat totals. This market will resolve to the bracket for the bloc that wins more combined seats that contains this margin. If both blocs win the same combined number of seats, this market will resolve to “Tie”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Ca…
Sources
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