Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:40:25 UTC, Polymarket traders price September 21 (92.2%), September 29 (90.5%), September 28 (84.0%). The market has $121K in volume and closes on Mon, 21 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 21 | 92.2% | 92.2¢ | 7.8¢ |
| September 29 | 90.5% | 90.5¢ | 9.6¢ |
| September 28 | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| September 30 | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| September 27 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| September 20 | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| September 24 | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| September 26 | 6.2% | 6.2¢ | 93.8¢ |
| September 22 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $121K
- Liquidity: $956
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information availab…
Sources
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