Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:27:22 UTC, Polymarket traders price No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate (33.8%), Hormuz Agreement; R Senate (4.1%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 33.8% | 33.8¢ | 66.2¢ |
| Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 4.1% | 4.1¢ | 95.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $47K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if no Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" immediately. Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" will be considered to have occurred if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Hormuz Agreement component to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplo…
Sources
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