Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 - 11/8)
As of Mon, 02 Nov 2026 00:29:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 3 (92.0%), Above 4 (79.0%), Above 5 (65.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Tue, 10 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Above 4 | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Above 5 | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Above 6 | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Above 7 | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Above 8 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Above 9 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 10 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $9K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 3:
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 3 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
Related markets
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran this year?
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran this year?
- Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.