Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 09:09:07 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 3 (95.0%), Above 4 (79.0%), Above 5 (71.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 4 | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Above 5 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Above 6 | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Above 7 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Above 8 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Above 9 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 10 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 3:
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 3 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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