Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (11/9 - 11/15)
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 16:56:45 UTC, Kalshi traders price November 12 (15.0%), November 13 (15.0%), November 14 (15.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Tue, 17 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 12 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| November 13 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| November 14 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| November 15 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| November 11 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| November 9 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| November 10 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for November 12:
If Nov 12, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Sources
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