Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:16:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price October 19 (18.0%), October 21 (15.0%), October 20 (15.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Tue, 27 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 19 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| October 21 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 20 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 23 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 24 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 25 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 22 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for October 19:
If Oct 19, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Sources
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