Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:32:57 UTC, Polymarket traders price November 30 (71.0%), October 31 (69.5%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| October 31 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve "Yes." A downgrade by both agencies is not required. For purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies. A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify. Rating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ra…
Sources
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