Michigan Senate: margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 09:09:07 UTC, Kalshi traders price Abdul El-Sayed, 2-4% (17.0%), Mike Rogers, 0-2% (14.0%), Abdul El-Sayed, 0-2% (14.0%). The market has $20K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed, 2-4% | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Mike Rogers, 0-2% | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 0-2% | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 4-6% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Abdul El-Sayed, ≥10% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Mike Rogers, 2-4% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 8-10% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Mike Rogers, ≥6% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Mike Rogers, 4-6% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $20K
- Liquidity: $20K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Abdul El-Sayed, 2-4%:
If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses. If Abdul El-Sayed wins, the margin will be positive; if Abdul El-Sayed loses, the margin will be negative; if Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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