Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by...?
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 01:19:16 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (31.5%), June 30 (30.5%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 31.5% | 31.5¢ | 68.5¢ |
| June 30 | 30.5% | 30.5¢ | 69.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $543
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://x.com/MarathonFusion/status/2113001073019662481) This market will resolve to "Yes" if high-rate alchemy is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "High-rate alchemy" refers to the experimental production of stable gold-197 from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators) at an average rate of more than 800,000 gold-197 atoms per second. For reference, CERN's ALICE collaboration reported a maximum rate of approximately 89,000 gold nuclei per second in May 2025. The production rate will be calculated as the total number of gold-197 atoms produced by the irradiation, including gold-197 resulting from the decay of mercury-197 created during the irradiation, divided by the total duration of the neutron irradiation. Confirmations that only establish that some gold was produced from mercury, that establish a lower production rate, that rely on neutrons not generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions, or that are based on simulations or modeling without an experimental demonstration will not qualify. The qualifying confirmation methods are: (i) Peer-reviewed publication:…
Sources
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