Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
As of Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:38:21 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (7.5%), October 31 (0.8%). The market has $81K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| October 31 | 0.8% | 0.8¢ | 99.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $81K
- Liquidity: $312K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for December 31:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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