Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:58 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 15.5 million barrels (98.0%), Above 16.0 million barrels (83.0%), Above 16.5 million barrels (77.0%). The market has $66K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15.5 million barrels | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 16.0 million barrels | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| Above 16.5 million barrels | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Above 17.0 million barrels | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Above 17.5 million barrels | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Above 18.0 million barrels | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $66K
- Liquidity: $66K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 15.5 million barrels:
If the Kentucky Distillers’ Association reports that the number of Bourbon barrels aging in Kentucky as of January 1, 2026 was above 15.5 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the statewide Bourbon barrel inventory derived from inventories submitted by Kentucky distilleries and warehousing companies to the Kentucky Department of Revenue. Only barrels containing Bourbon will count; barrels containing other aging spirits will not. The January 1, 2025 figures, for example, were 16.1M Bourbon barrels versus 17.1M total barrels of all aging spirits.
Sources
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