Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
As of Sat, 24 Oct 2026 23:47:39 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (67.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 67.5% | 67.5¢ | 32.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or pretrial detention, house arrest in any form, closed, semi-open, or open prison regimes, and any other measure in a Brazilian criminal proceeding requiring confinement in a prison, residence, or other designated place, except for the residence or curfew conditions permitted below. The release must be legally authorized and actually implemented by the deadline, ending all custodial measures. For house arrest, this means the measure has ceased to apply and he is no longer held under it or any other custodial measure. What qualifies: - Release through sentence extinction, annulment, or completion; a pardon, commutation, or amnesty; or a judicial decision, including habeas corpus, provisional release, or suspension of sentence execution. His sentence or conviction need not have ended. - Conditional release or parole (livramento condicional), including electronic monitoring, residence, or curfew conditions, provided he is no longer under house arrest or serving a sentence under a closed, semi-open, or open prison regime. What does not qualify: - Humanitarian house arrest (prisão domiciliar humanitária), including continuation, extension, or modification leaving any custodial measur…
Sources
Related markets
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
- Next French Presidential Election
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.