Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:57:52 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 20 (98.8%), October 19 (98.4%), October 18 (96.1%). The market has $16K in volume and closes on Wed, 21 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 20 | 98.8% | 98.8¢ | 1.2¢ |
| October 19 | 98.4% | 98.4¢ | 1.6¢ |
| October 18 | 96.1% | 96.1¢ | 3.9¢ |
| October 28 | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| October 21 | 89.5% | 89.5¢ | 10.5¢ |
| October 30 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| October 25 | 84.5% | 84.5¢ | 15.5¢ |
| October 27 | 83.5% | 83.5¢ | 16.5¢ |
| October 26 | 81.0% | 81.0¢ | 19.0¢ |
| October 24 | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| October 29 | 79.5% | 79.5¢ | 20.5¢ |
| October 23 | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| October 22 | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| October 31 | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| October 6 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $16K
- Liquidity: $115K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are dis…
Sources
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