Iran crude oil production in September
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:05:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 1.2M bpd (96.0%), At least 1.4M bpd (92.0%), At least 1.6M bpd (82.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 20 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1.2M bpd | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| At least 1.4M bpd | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| At least 1.6M bpd | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| At least 1.8M bpd | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| At least 2.0M bpd | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| At least 2.2M bpd | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| At least 2.6M bpd | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| At least 2.4M bpd | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| At least 2.8M bpd | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| At least 3.2M bpd | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| At least 3.0M bpd | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 1.2M bpd:
If Iran’s average daily crude oil production for September 2026 is at least 1.2M bpd (million barrels per day), as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Iran’s crude oil production based on secondary sources, as shown in the OPEC crude oil production table. OPEC reports this figure in thousand barrels per day; for purposes of this market, [X] million barrels per day equals [X × 1,000] thousand barrels per day. Later revisions, corrections, or subsequent reports will not be considered.
Sources
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