How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 20:00:36 UTC, Polymarket traders price No vote by February 28 (39.5%), 57–59 (23.5%), 54–56 (19.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No vote by February 28 | 39.5% | 39.5¢ | 60.5¢ |
| 57–59 | 23.5% | 23.5¢ | 76.5¢ |
| 54–56 | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| 60–62 | 18.5% | 18.5¢ | 81.5¢ |
| 69–71 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| 66–68 | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| 51–53 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| 72+ | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| 48–50 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| 63–65 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 47 or fewer | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $28K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Following the Israeli legislative election of October 27, 2026, the 26th Knesset is set to hold a vote of confidence in a new government. This market will resolve to the number of Members of the Knesset who vote “For” in the first vote of confidence in a new Israeli government held following this election. The vote count refers to the first final vote of confidence in the full Knesset, not committee votes or procedural motions. If no such vote is held by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Only a vote of confidence held by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset is dissolved and a new election is called before such a vote is held, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Votes of confidence held after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered. The resolution sources will be official information from the Knesset and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
Related markets
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alaska Senate Election Winner
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.