How low will Bitcoin get this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 04:28:38 UTC, Kalshi traders price Below $55,000.00 (8.0%), Below $50,000.00 (8.0%), Below $45,000.00 (6.0%). The market has $7.5M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $55,000.00 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Below $50,000.00 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Below $45,000.00 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Below $40,000.00 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7.5M
- Liquidity: $7.5M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Below $55,000.00:
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $55000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
Sources
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