How high will the 7-year US Treasury yield get this month?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price 5.16% or above (74.0%), 5.17% or above (73.0%), 5.18% or above (65.0%). The market has $27K in volume and closes on Fri, 30 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.16% or above | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| 5.17% or above | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| 5.18% or above | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| 5.19% or above | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| 5.21% or above | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| 5.22% or above | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| 5.23% or above | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| 5.24% or above | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| 5.25% or above | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| 5.26% or above | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| 5.27% or above | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| 5.28% or above | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| 5.3% or above | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| 5.2% or above | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| 5.31% or above | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $27K
- Liquidity: $27K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 5.2% or above:
If the daily published par yield for the 7-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.19% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 7-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.
Sources
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