Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:34:15 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 (42.0%), June 30, 2027 (30.5%), March 31, 2027 (18.5%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| June 30, 2027 | 30.5% | 30.5¢ | 69.5¢ |
| March 31, 2027 | 18.5% | 18.5¢ | 81.5¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| November 30, 2026 | 3.5% | 3.5¢ | 96.5¢ |
| October 31, 2026 | 0.9% | 0.9¢ | 99.2¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $261K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Sources
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