Florida Senate: margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 07:03:14 UTC, Kalshi traders price Ashley Moody, 6-8% (14.0%), Ashley Moody, 8-10% (12.0%), Ashley Moody, 10-12% (11.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody, 6-8% | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Ashley Moody, 8-10% | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Ashley Moody, 10-12% | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Ashley Moody, 4-6% | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Ashley Moody, ≥16% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Ashley Moody, 12-14% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Ashley Moody, 2-4% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Ashley Moody, 0-2% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Ashley Moody, 14-16% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Angie Nixon, 0-2% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Angie Nixon, ≥2% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Ashley Moody, 6-8%:
If the margin of victory for Ashley Moody in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida is within 6% to 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ashley Moody minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ashley Moody if Ashley Moody wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ashley Moody loses. If Ashley Moody wins, the margin will be positive; if Ashley Moody loses, the margin will be negative; if Ashley Moody ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ashley Moody runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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