European military action against Iran by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:29:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (3.9%), October 31 (1.5%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3.9% | 3.9¢ | 96.2¢ |
| October 31 | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $23K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surfa…
Sources
Related markets
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
- US military draft authorized in 2026?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.