Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:26:39 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (56.5%), October 31 (28.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 56.5% | 56.5¢ | 43.5¢ |
| October 31 | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $373
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ethiopia targets Eritrea through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM East Africa Time (EAT). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ethiopia, directed at Eritrea. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Eritrea if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Eritrea, including any internal w…
Sources
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