Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?

As of Tue, 11 Aug 2026 20:14:06 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (2.4%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes2.4%2.4¢97.6¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

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