Closest Senate Race (of listed options)?
As of Mon, 14 Sep 2026 13:03:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price Texas (16.5%), Maine (8.0%), New Hampshire (3.0%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| Maine | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| New Hampshire | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Florida (Special) | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.1¢ |
| Montana | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Georgia | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.3¢ |
| New Mexico | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
| North Carolina | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
| Minnesota | 0.9% | 0.9¢ | 99.1¢ |
| Colorado | 0.2% | 0.2¢ | 99.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $108K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
Related markets
- Alaska Governor Election Winner
- Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.