Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?

As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:13:21 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (11.5%). The market has $134 in volume and closes on Tue, 05 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes11.5%11.5¢88.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats have a seat count of 250 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 54 or more in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of…

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