Bank of Mexico rate decision in September
As of Mon, 21 Sep 2026 12:12:07 UTC, Kalshi traders price Maintain current rate (100.0%), Cut 50bps (27.0%), Hike 25bps (13.0%). The market has $67K in volume and closes on Thu, 24 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| Cut 50bps | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Hike 25bps | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Hike 50bps | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Hike more than 50bps | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Cut more than 50bps | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $67K
- Liquidity: $67K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Maintain current rate:
If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Maintain current rate at the September Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Sources
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