Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:59 UTC, Polymarket traders price 0-5 (93.5%), 5-10 (2.6%), 15-20 (1.6%). The market has $28K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | 93.5% | 93.5¢ | 6.5¢ |
| 5-10 | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
| 15-20 | 1.6% | 1.6¢ | 98.4¢ |
| 10-15 | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.6¢ |
| 25-30 | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.4¢ |
| 30+ | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
| 20-25 | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $28K
- Liquidity: $166K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. On…
Sources
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