Alaska Senate election margin of victory
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:39:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price Dan Sullivan, 0-3% (25.0%), Mary Peltola, 0-3% (23.0%), Mary Peltola, 3-6% (20.0%). The market has $66K in volume and closes on Wed, 02 Jun 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan, 0-3% | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 0-3% | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 3-6% | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 6-9% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Dan Sullivan, 3-6% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Dan Sullivan, 6-9% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 9-12% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Mary Peltola, ≥12% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Dan Sullivan, 9-12% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Dan Sullivan, ≥12% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $66K
- Liquidity: $66K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Dan Sullivan, 0-3%:
If the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation. "Dan Sullivan" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Dan Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Dan Sullivan will be summed. If Dan Sullivan wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Dan Sullivan loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Dan Sullivan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Dan Sullivan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Sources
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