ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 23:17:39 UTC, Polymarket traders price Not Extended & Democratic Party (91.5%), Not Extended & Republican Party (8.5%). The market has $80K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Not Extended & Democratic Party91.5%91.5¢8.5¢
Not Extended & Republican Party8.5%8.5¢91.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025? Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government. This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025. A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify. If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect. The primary source of resolution will be official information fr…

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