Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 08:27:48 UTC, Kalshi traders price China (5.0%), United Kingdom (5.0%), India (2.0%). The market has $202K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| United Kingdom | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| India | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $202K
- Liquidity: $202K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for China:
If China has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The exact dataset for China is GDP, Nominal, Unadjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
Sources
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