2028 popular vote margin of victory?
As of Wed, 16 Sep 2026 17:11:15 UTC, Kalshi traders price Democratic by 9.0% or more (24.0%), Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99% (12.0%), Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99% (9.0%). The market has $150K in volume and closes on Mon, 08 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic by 9.0% or more | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99% | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Republican by 9.0% or more | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Republican by 1.0% to 1.99% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Republican by 0.01% to 0.99% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Republican by 2.0% to 2.99% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Republican by 3.0% to 3.99% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $150K
- Liquidity: $150K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Democratic by 9.0% or more:
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.
Sources
Related markets
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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