5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?
As of Fri, 02 Oct 2026 08:22:30 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.91% or above (92.0%), 4.93% or above (90.0%), 4.95% or above (71.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Fri, 02 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.91% or above | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| 4.93% or above | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| 4.95% or above | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| 4.97% or above | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| 4.99% or above | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| 5.01% or above | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| 5.03% or above | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| 5.05% or above | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| 5.07% or above | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| 5.11% or above | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| 5.09% or above | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| 5.13% or above | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| 5.15% or above | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| 5.17% or above | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| 5.19% or above | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $9K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.93% or above:
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.92% on Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 2, 2026, or one week following Oct 2, 2026.
Sources
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