2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 1, 2026?
As of Thu, 01 Oct 2026 16:43:17 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.76% or above (89.0%), 4.78% or above (62.0%), 4.8% or above (60.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.76% or above | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| 4.78% or above | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| 4.8% or above | 60.0% | 60.0¢ | 40.0¢ |
| 4.82% or above | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| 4.84% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 4.94% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 4.96% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 4.98% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 4.86% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 4.88% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 4.9% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 4.92% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 5.02% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 5.04% or above | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.82% or above:
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.81% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 1, 2026, or one week following Oct 1, 2026.
Sources
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