10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:24:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.96% or above (99.0%), 5.02% or above (99.0%), 4.98% or above (98.0%). The market has $20K in volume and closes on Tue, 20 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.96% or above | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 5.02% or above | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| 4.98% or above | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| 5.04% or above | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| 5.06% or above | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| 5.08% or above | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| 5.12% or above | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| 5.14% or above | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| 5.16% or above | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| 5.18% or above | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| 5.2% or above | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| 5.22% or above | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 5.24% or above | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $20K
- Liquidity: $20K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.96% or above:
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 20, 2026, or one week following Oct 20, 2026.
Sources
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