US corn yield in the January 2027 USDA report
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 08:27:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price Below 181.2 bu/acre (53.0%), Above 181.2 bu/acre (48.0%), Exactly 181.2 bu/acre (2.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Tue, 19 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 181.2 bu/acre | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above 181.2 bu/acre | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Exactly 181.2 bu/acre | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Below 181.2 bu/acre:
If U.S. corn yield per harvested acre for the 2026/27 marketing year is below 181.2 bu/acre, as reported in the January 2027 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the “Yield per Harvested Acre” figure in the CORN section of the “U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use” table, using the January estimate for the 2026/27 marketing year. For this market, the first publication of the January 2027 WASDE report controls, including if USDA labels the figure an estimate or projection. Earlier reports and subsequent revisions, corrections, or reports will not be considered. If publication is delayed, the January 2027 report remains the designated report, subject to ECONSTAT’s expiration and contingency provisions. The comparison value is fixed at 181.2 bushels per acre, the October 2026 WASDE estimate. Compare the published yield directly; do not recalculate it from production and acreage. For “exactly,” apply ECONSTAT’s two-decimal rounding convention, so a published value of 181.2 equals 181.20.
Sources
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