Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 30, 2026
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 16:53:07 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 59,500 MW (97.0%), Above 57,000 MW (96.0%), Above 57,500 MW (96.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 06 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 59,500 MW | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Above 57,000 MW | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 57,500 MW | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 58,000 MW | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Above 58,500 MW | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Above 60,000 MW | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Above 59,000 MW | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Above 60,500 MW | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above 61,000 MW | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Above 61,500 MW | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Above 62,000 MW | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Above 63,000 MW | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 63,500 MW | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 62,500 MW | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 65,000 MW | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 59,500 MW:
If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 29, 2026 is above 59,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 29, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.
Sources
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