What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:50:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price Transgender (98.0%), Healthcare (96.0%), Save America Act (96.0%). The market has $36K in volume and closes on Thu, 05 Nov 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Transgender98.0%98.0¢2.0¢
Healthcare96.0%96.0¢4.0¢
Save America Act96.0%96.0¢4.0¢
Dividend / Stimulus95.0%95.0¢5.0¢
Stock Market93.0%93.0¢7.0¢
Hottest91.0%91.0¢9.0¢
Estate Tax / Death Tax87.0%87.0¢13.0¢
Steel85.0%85.0¢15.0¢
Sleepy Joe84.0%84.0¢16.0¢
Ethanol82.0%82.0¢18.0¢
Barack Hussein Obama81.0%81.0¢19.0¢
Supreme Court77.0%77.0¢23.0¢
E1576.0%76.0¢24.0¢
Nuclear (3+ times)69.0%69.0¢31.0¢
Made in America / American Made68.0%68.0¢32.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Transgender:

If Donald Trump says Transgender as part of Midterm Rally in Sioux City, Iowa originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the Midterm Rally in Sioux City, Iowa originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Sioux City, Iowa originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes…

Sources

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