Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
As of Sun, 08 Nov 2026 00:38:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 1% (96.0%), At least 1.5% (88.0%), At least 2% (65.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Sun, 08 Apr 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| At least 1.5% | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| At least 2% | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| At least 2.5% | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| At least 3% | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| At least 4% | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| At least 5% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| At least 7% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 1%:
If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Third-party votes are all votes cast for President other than votes for the Democratic nominee and the Republican nominee. They include votes for independent and minor-party candidates, write-in votes, and votes for "None of these candidates." A nominee is the candidate the Democratic Party or the Republican Party nominated for President. A nominee's votes on every ballot line are combined, including a line of another party (such as New York's Conservative and Working Families lines), and are not third-party votes. The third-party share is the third-party votes divided by the total votes cast for President in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, using the Federal Election Commission's "Official Presidential General Election Results" for the Nov 7, 2028 election: (Total Votes minus the Democratic nominee's total minus the Republican nominee's total) divided by Total Votes. Blank and spoiled ballots are not counted. Votes the report does not include, such as write-ins a state does not tally, are not added from other sources. In a state that uses ranked-choice voting, first-round votes are used. The first version of the report that the FEC publishes is used; later revisions do not count. Each state's figures are its final certified results, including a recount completed before certification. If the FEC has not pub…
Sources
Related markets
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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