Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q3?
As of Thu, 24 Sep 2026 17:09:40 UTC, Kalshi traders price Duolingo (3.0%), SoFi (3.0%), Cerebras (3.0%). The market has $132K in volume and closes on Wed, 30 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duolingo | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| SoFi | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Cerebras | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Curtiss-Wright Corporation | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Guidewire Software | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Affirm Holdings | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| BWX Technologies | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Circle Internet Group | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Snowflake | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Talen Energy | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Toast | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Venture Global | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| SpaceX | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| CoreWeave | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $132K
- Liquidity: $132K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Duolingo:
If Duolingo is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.
Sources
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