120th Congress: Who will run for Senate Republican leader?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 23:29:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price John Thune (95.0%), Rick Scott (13.0%), Mike Lee (6.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Thune | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Rick Scott | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Mike Lee | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Ron Johnson | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| John Barrasso | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Tom Cotton | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Josh Hawley | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for John Thune:
If John Thune has announced that they will run for Senate Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources. Senate Republican leader means the top post the Senate Republican Conference elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: Majority Leader if Republicans win the Senate majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. Running only for a lower post, such as whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes. For a person who announced before Issuance, repeating that announcement does not count; only standing as a candidate in that leadership election…
Sources
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