Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:23:13 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (4.0%). The market has $616K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $616K
- Liquidity: $616K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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