Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator this year?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:27:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price Texas (30.0%), Kansas (25.0%), North Carolina (14.0%). The market has $146K in volume and closes on Sat, 03 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Kansas | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| North Carolina | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| South Carolina | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Alaska | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Iowa | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Mississippi | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Ohio | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Louisiana | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Minnesota | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| New Hampshire | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Georgia | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Virginia | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Florida | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Michigan | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $146K
- Liquidity: $146K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Texas:
If Texas is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Harris won. A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party). Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats. Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority. An unlisted qualifying state with the highest margin, or no qualifying state, makes every named market resolve NO.
Sources
Related markets
- Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Maine Senate winner?
- Michigan Senate winner?
- Ohio Senate winner?
- Iowa Senate winner?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.