2028 Presidential race: exact outcome
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:23 UTC, Kalshi traders price AOC defeats JD Vance (10.0%), Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance (9.0%), JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom (8.0%). The market has $136K in volume and closes on Tue, 07 Nov 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| AOC defeats JD Vance | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| JD Vance defeats AOC | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| AOC defeats Marco Rubio | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| James Talarico defeats JD Vance | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| JD Vance defeats James Talarico | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $136K
- Liquidity: $136K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for AOC defeats JD Vance:
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeats JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.
Sources
Related markets
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