Marcellus formation natural gas production this year
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 19:33:28 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 9.00 Tcf (98.0%), Above 9.25 Tcf (97.0%), Above 9.50 Tcf (94.0%). The market has $50K in volume and closes on Wed, 07 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 9.00 Tcf | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 9.25 Tcf | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Above 9.50 Tcf | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above 9.75 Tcf | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Above 10.00 Tcf | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Above 10.25 Tcf | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $50K
- Liquidity: $50K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 9.00 Tcf:
If EIA reports that dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for calendar year 2026 is above 9.00 Tcf, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is EIA’s Marcellus formation dry natural gas production series. Monthly average production rates will be converted into monthly volumes using the number of calendar days in each month and summed across January–December 2026. Production from the broader Appalachia region or Utica formation will not be included. EIA publishes the relevant shale-production series through its STEO data products.
Sources
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