Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 08:55:17 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 15 (94.0%), Above 20 (78.0%), Above 23 (55.0%). The market has $17K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above 20 | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Above 23 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| Above 25 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above 27 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Above 30 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Above 35 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Above 40 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 50 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $17K
- Liquidity: $17K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 15:
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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