Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 3 (99.0%), Above 4 (92.0%), Above 5 (85.0%). The market has $152K in volume and closes on Tue, 20 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 4 | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Above 5 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Above 6 | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Above 14 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 12 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 10 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 8 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $152K
- Liquidity: $152K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 3:
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 3 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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