Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27)
As of Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:34:11 UTC, Kalshi traders price September 24 (49.0%), September 25 (42.0%), September 26 (30.0%). The market has $54K in volume and closes on Tue, 29 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| September 25 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| September 26 | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| September 27 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| September 22 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| September 23 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| September 21 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $54K
- Liquidity: $54K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for September 24:
If Sep 24, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Sources
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