Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/12 - 10/18)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price October 13 (48.0%), October 16 (46.0%), October 14 (8.0%). The market has $87K in volume and closes on Tue, 20 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 13 | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| October 16 | 46.0% | 46.0¢ | 54.0¢ |
| October 14 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| October 15 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| October 18 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| October 12 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| October 17 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $87K
- Liquidity: $87K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for October 13:
If Oct 13, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Sources
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