Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/28 - 10/4)
As of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 16:35:38 UTC, Kalshi traders price September 30 (46.0%), October 2 (19.0%), September 28 (16.0%). The market has $39K in volume and closes on Tue, 06 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 46.0% | 46.0¢ | 54.0¢ |
| October 2 | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| September 28 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| October 4 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| September 29 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| October 3 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| October 1 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $39K
- Liquidity: $39K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for September 30:
If Sep 30, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Sources
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